The impact of technology development on the future of the world economy
The future development of the digital economy will depend on the success of a number of breakthrough technologies. At the end of 2017, five such technologies can be distinguished: - 5G-connection; - 3D printing; - blockchain; - artificial intelligence - AI; - virtual reality.
The listed technologies are among the most important areas of development identified in the strategic documents of most developed countries. Active attempts to develop them are also being made in China and a number of other Asian countries, and in 2017, “digital” priorities also received wide attention of Russian government officials.
The mentioned technologies are in the stage of intensive development, every year they become more and more perfect and attract more and more young scientists. Each technology can have a disruptive effect on a number of traditional sectors of the economy and on business as a whole.
Before proceeding to consider leading industries that have already become digital or have fully felt the impact of new technologies, we will consider the prospects for the selected breakthrough technologies
Modern digital technologies which rapidly developing
- Widespread in large cities, mobile communication systems operate in LTE 4G - 2665 MHz networks at speeds of up to 100 Mbps. Further, progress is associated with the use of millimeter waves - 1-100 GHz, which have unique features and are widely used, for example, by the military. New networks will be able to provide speeds up to 10 Gb / s. It is the increase in data transfer speed by ten times that is the opportunity that will lead to tremendous changes in the world. Already conducted tests show that the 5G era is close and most likely will come in the early 2020s. After the introduction of a new unified communications standard - IEEE 5G. It is the new generation networks that will open the way for ubiquitous industrial automation - m2m, unmanned vehicles and real breakthroughs in the field of the Internet of things. At first, the technology will be used in major mega cities and can significantly change their economy.
- Additive manufacturing allows you to impose thin layers of material on top of each other, creating the desired 3D model. Currently, this market is very small - about $ 6 billion in 2016. It is expected that the use of 3D printing can reduce the cost of production, provide new highly skilled jobs and, together with other technologies, transform the industry. In 2015-2016 the 3D printing market saw a slowdown and a complete discrepancy with analysts' expectations, however, already in 2017 the sector expects growth of about 16%, and the total number of 3D printers sold will grow by 39%. The estimates of consulting companies are very optimistic - in the next 5 years, the average annual growth in the 3D printer market will reach 33%, according to Context. The greatest contribution is made by industrial devices.
- The technology of distributed registries allows you to conduct a transaction - i.e. transmit some valuable information, for example, currency or contractual obligations, without copying it and further comparison of copies - by the method of distribution between many independent and anonymous users - nodes. It should be emphasized that, first, blockchain is relevant for those countries and industries where the level of trust in established organizations is low - banks, governments, counterparties, etc., since the technology attracts with its transparency and security. It provides an opportunity to develop smart contracts - i.e. performed automatically upon reaching the specified conditions, the shared economy, already held on the example of Uber and Airbnb, crowdfunding, electronic elections, new types of intellectual property protection and user identification, micro grids in the energy sector, can also be used in any other operations that require instant and safe data exchange. In addition, blockchain technology allows you to create cryptocurrencies, the most famous of which is bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency is a digital currency circulating on a computer network. Cryptocurrencies have several advantages: high transaction speed, transparency of operations and security. Nevertheless, the future of cryptocurrencies remains a question - many participants act simultaneously as an issuer of cryptocurrency, which can make such a system unstable. In any case, cryptocurrencies require a rethinking of the role and function of money within the framework of the economic system. Visa - Visa B2B Connect, Disney, IBM, the governments of Dubai, China and Korea are actively working on the blockchain transaction project. Until 2017, technology was almost entirely concentrated in the United States and Western Europe. In 2017, the blockchain gained special popularity in Asia. For example, if in 2013 78.7% of blockchain transactions were in the United States, then in 2016 the share of the United States amounted to 49.2%. Separately, it is worth noting the huge potential of the blockchain for Africa, where 70% of the population is deprived of banking services. A number of countries in the region have already expressed interest.
- Artificial intelligence technologies include such developments as machine learning, image recognition and speech. AI is used in ICT, media industry, retail, healthcare and so on. According to McKinsey estimates, the largest high-tech companies spend on AI from 20 to 30 billion dollars a year, and startups - from 6 to 9 billion dollars. More than 90% of the costs are spent on research and development, 60% - on machine learning technology. Most of the applications of AI are at the experimental stage, so estimates of the prospects for this market vary widely - from 0.6 to 126 billion dollars by 2025. Although investments are growing rapidly, it’s too early to talk about the commercial use of AI. AI is best implemented in three industries: telecommunications, automotive, and financial services.
- Virtual reality technologies are usually considered together with augmented and mixed reality technologies. According to Goldman Sachs, by 2025, video game leaders — more than $ 11 billion and health care — more than $ 5 billion will be leaders in implementing virtual reality. The entire market may exceed $ 80 billion. At the end of 2016, the market is estimated at 2 , $ 7 billion. It should be noted that Asia is ahead of North America in sales of the corresponding software, but the US is growing rapidly - from $ 97 million in 2016 to $ 403 million in 2017 - according to the report SuperData.